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| Business Times quotes Chair | |  The Business Times, Singapore's leading business news source, carried the following article Jan. 9, covering the 2010 global business outlook of IIC Partners Board Chair Lim Chye Lian.
Talent Search Begins Anew
Executive recruitment is a leading indicator for the global economy — and indications are promising as we enter a new decade.
The last quarter of 2008 and the first half of 2009 were very slow in executive search, across all sectors and geographic regions, almost without exception. But in June and July of this year we saw a fairly pronounced renewal of activity that has been maintained since then.
Our partner firms are seeing higher levels of search activity in virtually every one of the 47 cities and 33 countries where we operate. Executive hiring is certainly not uniform in every region, or in every business sector, but the trend is clear. Our business has quickened substantially from the pace in the first half of the year and we expect continued improvement in 2010.
The recovery appears strongest in Asia Pacific, where it’s evident that the primary engine of growth is the People’s Republic of China. That engine slowed briefly in the first half of the year but then regained its pace in the second half. IIC Partners held its global conference in Beijing in October and we had the chance to see, first hand, the impact that China exerts on regional and global economies. We expect China’s policy-driven economy to continue to expand at a very strong pace while maintaining the fundamentals of financial health.
Projected GDP growth is on an upward curve across most of the Asia/Pacific region, with the exception of Japan, and we believe China’s and India’s demand for raw materials will provide a stable base for growth in the region.
Search-industry figures compiled by the Association of Executive Search Consultants show that IIC Partners is not alone in seeing companies return to hiring senior executives. Activity levels across the search industry increased 32 per cent in Asia/Pacific in Q3/2009, over Q2 of this year. European activity increased 11 per cent, quarter on quarter, while South and Central America increased six per cent and North America rose by 2.4 per cent.
After its worst recession in 60 years, Europe is showing credible signs of recovery, with exports up 2.9 per cent in the third quarter despite the drag imposed by a strong Euro. Unemployment is still a concern and the recovery is still reliant on government stimulus. But investor confidence is up for the fourth straight month, as we end the year.
In the United States, consumer confidence has been shaken by unemployment, personal debt levels and underperforming retirement plans. But the recent consistent flow of investment back into equity markets can be expected to lend support to all other indicators. Executive search markets as diverse as Washington, Houston and even Detroit are reporting markedly better activity in the second half of the year and an improving outlook for 2010.
It’s important to bear in mind that 2008 was a banner year for the search industry, like many others, and no one is expecting 2010 to rise to that level. But, certainly, we are seeing companies assessing their executive capacities and finding that they need new talent to deliver on their plans for next year and beyond.
Companies are also increasingly finding their hiring hand forced by demographics. Across Europe and North America, in particular, the baby boom generation is entering retirement. To be sure, this impact has been delayed to some degree by the recession but the simplest mathematics tells us it won’t be deferred much longer. Estimates are that several tens of millions of jobs will be vacated in the decade ahead and that millions of those vacancies will be in senior management. Some companies have planned for this but most have less than total solutions in this area.
As we emerge from recession, talk of a return to the talent war may seem premature. But demographics tell us the downturn was never really anything more than a temporary lull.
For those of us in Asia, the interesting fact is that it will be statistically impossible for Europe and North America to replace all their retiring managers by internal recruitment. For a generation of Asian talent who have attended Western business schools, gained international management skills and become fluent in English, we are entering what could be the first year in a decade of golden global opportunity.
Lim Chye Lian is Managing Partner of Executive Talent International in Singapore and Global Chair of IIC Partners, Executive Search Worldwide. IIC Partners is the world’s eighth ranked executive search organization, by revenue, with 47 offices in 33 countries.
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